Milan come into this weekend’s game boasting the best away record in Serie A. However, their injury list is mounting. The most recent addition to the list of absentees is Alessandro Nesta who damaged an arm last week in the victory over Cesena. Injuries are not the only problem facing Milan this weekend. They also have the dreaded task of facing a club who have just changed manager. Catania will be hoping that ‘new manager syndrome’ will be in full effect as ex-Argentine international Diego Simeone takes charge of his first home game after replacing the departed Marco Giampaolo.
Catania currently lies in 16th place with 22 points from 21 games. They currently boast the joint 9th best home record in Serie A. Their home form is the only thing currently keeping them above the relegation zone, as they have managed a pitiful 3 points all season on their travels, not yet recording a win. They have lost 4 of their last 6 games in Serie A, also picking up a win and a draw.
To take a more in-depth look at their home form, their record currently stands at;
Played – 10
Won - 5 (Parma, Cesena, Udinese, Bari & Brescia).
Drawn – 4 (Bologna, Napoli, Fiorentina & Chievo)
Lost – 2 (Juventus & Inter).
Their home games are often low scoring affairs. They have scored 12 goals in 11 games and conceded only 9, which is half of the total they have conceded in away games.
It is difficult to gauge how Catania will set up in this game, due to a new manager being at the helm. Simeone has commented that he wants a more flexible system to be used. He adopted a 4-2-3-1 system in his first game last week vs. Parma. This was a change from the 4-1-4-1 system that Catania has used for the majority of the season. The major change in personnel was the addition of Ricchiuti who was put into the creative role behind Maxi Lopez. Despite their defeat to Parma, Catania managed to have more shots at goal than in any previous Serie A game this season. This may be an indication of a more attacking philosophy under Simeone.
Their main threat to Milan is likely to come from Maxi Lopez who is their top goal scorer with 5 goals. Matias Silvestre will also carry a threat from set-pieces. He is currently Catania's second top goal scorer, with 3 goals, all coming via his head.
The mounting injury list for Milan must be causing considerable concern for Allegri. He has now lost Alessandro Nesta for 3 to 4 weeks with an arm injury. Also absent for the next 3 weeks are Gennaro Gattuso and Clarence Seedorf. This is on top of, Kevin Prince Boateng, Gianluca Zambrotta, Daniele Bonera & Andrea Pirlo. Such was the extent of the decimation of the Milan squad; Thiago Silva was forced to play in central midfield against Parma and Sampdoria. The burden has been lifted somewhat in the past week by the acquisitions of Urby Emanuelsen and Mark van Bommel who have arrived from Ajax and Bayern Munich respectively. Both made their debuts in the midweek Coppa Italia win over Sampdoria.
Milan’s away form this season has been excellent. They currently have the best away points total of any side in Serie A. Their record broken downis as follows;
Played: 10
Won: 6 (Parma, Napoli, Bari, Inter, Bologna, Cagliari)
Drawn: 3 (Lazio, Sampdoria, Lecce)
Lost: 1 (Cesena)
Milan’s defensive record away from home is good, with them only conceding 8 goals in 10 games. Their scoring rate however is reduced to 1.4 goals per game, compared with their rate of just over 2 goals per game at home. This currently puts them as the 3rd highest scorers away from home (Napoli & Udinese have scored more, but played a game more). They also have the 2nd best defensive record, with only Genoa conceding fewer.
Injuries permitting, Allegri is likely to line up using his now familiar 4-3-1-2 formation. With Nesta missing through injury, it will probably mean the return to central defence of Thiago Silva. The combination of Yepes and Sokratis doesn’t really inspire a great deal of confidence, especially when the midfield is weakened. Milan has numerous threats going forward with the likes of Zlatan, Robinho,Cassano & Pato. The front 3 of Zlatan, Robinho and Cassano combined well vs. Cesena, and should have produced more goals. Robinho in particular was wasteful in front of goal, despite his e
xcellent approach play. Pato created a selection headache in midweek with 2 very well taken goals against Sampdoria. With Robinho and Zlatan pretty much assured a starting role, it seems a straight selection between Pato and Cassano.
Despite the talent of the attacking players, I can’t help but feel that against better sides (or sides who play out and out wingers, i.e. Spurs) that problems will be created by their lack of willingness to track back, thus isolating their full backs. However, I wouldn’t envisage this being too much of a problem in this fixture. 
Prediction = Milan win.
I think this will be quite a close game. The crowd and the Catania players are likely to be well up for this game, with it being Simeone’s first at home. However, I think the attacking trident of Milan will be very difficult for them to contain. The signings of van Bommel and Emanuelsen, and their subsequent solid performances away at Sampdoria have swayed me more towards Milan in this fixture. It will allow Allegri to switch Silva back to centre half if he wishes to, and makes them a lot more solid defensively and in the middle of the park. Pushed on a score, I’ll go for 2-1 in favour of Milan.
Betfair odds at time of writing;
Milan win - 1.88
Milan to win 2-1 - 9.
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