How this weekend's predictions went!

I will keep a log of all the predictions I make so that you can see how successful (or unsuccessful !) my predictions are.

This week I did previews of two games.

Catania vs Milan.

I predicted a Milan win which at the time was at 1.88.
I predicted that the score would be 2-1, the game finished 2-0. The odds for 2-1 at the time were 9.

The second game was Juventus vs Udinese.

I predicted a Udinese win, which was at 3.55.
I also predicted that the scord would be 2-1. This was at 13.5.
Both of these were correct.

After the first week then, my record is as follows;

Correctly predicted results 2 from 2.
Correctly predicted scores 1 from 2.

Juventus vs Udinese

Juventus enter this game on the back of only 1 league win in their last 5 games. They are currently lying in 6^th position in Serie A. Udinese are currently in 8^th position and morale will be high after their impressive 3-1 victory over champions Inter in last weekend’s round of fixtures.

Juventus’ title ambitions have all but fallen apart within the last month. A run of 1 win in their last 5 league games has left them 9 points adrift of league leaders Milan. Whilst it remains to be seen as to whether Milan can sustain their form for the rest of the season, it seems very unlikely that Juventus will be the side to take advantage of any slip ups that do occur. The injury to Fabio Quagliarella (who is out for the rest of the season) has left them looking completely toothless and devoid of ideas. They are heavily reliant upon Milos Krasic in terms of creativity and his early season form has dipped quite markedly. Which perhaps shouldn’t come as a great surprise considering it is his first season in Italy, and he hasn’t had a sustained period of rest due to the schedule of the Russian league.

Their last two performances against Sampdoria and Roma (Coppa Italia) have been very flat. They have had no real cutting edge. Amauri has led the attack in both games, although he only managed 45 minutes against Roma before being substituted. During these games, he has resembled a robot that is controlled via the stands by remote control. Except there is a slight problem, somebody forgot to put the batteries in. Therefore, the robot has been stationary. No input. Just a passenger as the game passes him by. He has one goal in the past 12 months in Serie A. Thankfully for Del Neri (and all those watching) Iaquinta has returned to fitness, so we may be spared from having to watch Amauri ‘perform’ this week.

Juventus’ home form this season has been inconsistent, only winning half of their games. They currently have 18 points from 10 games at home, which gives them the 11^th best home record in Serie A. Their record is as follows;

Played: 10

Won: 5 (Cagliari, Lecce, Cesena, Lazio, Bari)

Drawn: 3 (Sampdoria, Roma, Fiorentina)

Lost: 2 (Palermo, Bari)

Juventus’ home games this season have been filled with goals.

They have the third highest number of goals scored, and they also have the worst home defensive record in the league, conceding 17 goals! It should probably come as no surprise then that their home record isn’t the best. They have managed 1 clean sheet at home in Serie A coming against Lecce in a 4-0 victory. They have however scored in every home game in Serie A.

Del Neri is likely to stick to his preferred 4-4-2 formation. With the terrible form of Amauri and the injuries to Luca Toni and Quagliarella, it is likely that Del Neri will partner Del Piero and Iaquinta in attack if they are both deemed to be match fit. Pepe was pushed into a more advanced role vs. Sampdoria in last weekend’s game, but this didn’t really work to any degree. There are injury doubts over Motta and Pepe. On a more positive note, Andrea Barzagli may be in line for his Juventus debut after completing a mid-week move from German side Wolfsburg. They will also welcome back Melo after a 3 game suspension.

Juve’s main threat in terms of impacting the game in an attacking sense is likely to come from Krasic who leads the way for Juventus with 5 assists in Serie A. He is also joint second top goal scorer with Iaquinta and Del Piero; they all currently have 4 league goals. The injured Quagliarella leads the way with 9.

Udinese are arguably the most entertaining side currently playing in Serie A. In their last 3 league games, they have scored 11 goals. No mean feat when the teams they were facing were Milan Genoa & Inter! Udinese have recovered well after what was a poor start to the season for them, losing their opening 4 games in Serie A. They are a fairly free-scoring side, boasting the 3^rd highest number of goals this season, with only Milan and Juventus scoring more goals.

Their away record is in need of some improvement. They currently have the joint 8^th best away record in Serie A with 11 points from 11 games.

Their record broken down is as follows;

Played: 11

Won: 3 (Brescia, Bari & Genoa)

Drawn: 2 (Sampdoria, Milan)

Lost: 6 (Inter, Bologna, Catania, Roma, Parma, Lazio).

Udinese currently have the most away goals scored in Serie A with 16 goals to their name. However, it is worth pointing out that half of the 16 goals have come in their last two away games at Milan and Genoa! They have failed to score in 3 of their away games this season (Sampdoria, Catania, and Roma). Looking at them from a defensive standpoint they have conceded 18 goals in their 11 away games, keeping a clean sheet on 3 occasions.

Udinese will be looking for a significantly better performance than in the first meeting between these sides this season, which resulted in an emphatic 4-0 victory for Juventus. At the time of writing there are no apparent injuries concerns and it is expected that they will field the same side that has won the last two games vs. Genoa and Inter. Their front two of Di Natale and Sanchez is likely to cause plenty of problems for the Juventus backline. Whilst Sanchez has been far from prolific in his Udinese career, he seems to be warming to the task of playing behind Di Natale. He has scored 4 goals in his last 5 Serie A games, with the only game he failed to score in being last week’s win vs. Inter. Di Natale has continued his fine form of last season. He has got himself on the score sheet in 8 of his last 10 games.

Prediction – Udinese win.

Udinese are riding a considerable wave of momentum at present and I think their good run will continue in this game. After viewing Juventus’ last two matches, I am struggling to think of a great deal of positives for them going into this game. Although Udinese’s away form is nothing to write home about, I think they’ll run out 2-1 winners.

Odds at the time or writing: Udinese - 3.55

Udinese to win 2-1 - 13.5

Amauri to feature on a new series of Robot Wars* - 1.25

* Which reminds me...Phillipa Forrester, not bad back in the day. Off to Google Images I go...

Catania vs. Milan

Milan come into this weekend’s game boasting the best away record in Serie A. However, their injury list is mounting. The most recent addition to the list of absentees is Alessandro Nesta who damaged an arm last week in the victory over Cesena. Injuries are not the only problem facing Milan this weekend. They also have the dreaded task of facing a club who have just changed manager. Catania will be hoping that ‘new manager syndrome’ will be in full effect as ex-Argentine international Diego Simeone takes charge of his first home game after replacing the departed Marco Giampaolo.

Catania currently lies in 16^th place with 22 points from 21 games. They currently boast the joint 9^th best home record in Serie A. Their home form is the only thing currently keeping them above the relegation zone, as they have managed a pitiful 3 points all season on their travels, not yet recording a win. They have lost 4 of their last 6 games in Serie A, also picking up a win and a draw.

To take a more in-depth look at their home form, their record currently stands at;

Played – 10

Won - 5 (Parma, Cesena, Udinese, Bari & Brescia).

Drawn – 4 (Bologna, Napoli, Fiorentina & Chievo)

Lost – 2 (Juventus & Inter).

Their home games are often low scoring affairs. They have scored 12 goals in 11 games and conceded only 9, which is half of the total they have conceded in away games.

It is difficult to gauge how Catania will set up in this game, due to a new manager being at the helm. Simeone has commented that he wants a more flexible system to be used. He adopted a 4-2-3-1 system in his first game last week vs. Parma. This was a change from the 4-1-4-1 system that Catania has used for the majority of the season. The major change in personnel was the addition of Ricchiuti who was put into the creative role behind Maxi Lopez. Despite their defeat to Parma, Catania managed to have more shots at goal than in any previous Serie A game this season. This may be an indication of a more attacking philosophy under Simeone.

Their main threat to Milan is likely to come from Maxi Lopez who is their top goal scorer with 5 goals. Matias Silvestre will also carry a threat from set-pieces. He is currently Catania's second top goal scorer, with 3 goals, all coming via his head.

Milan are currently sitting top of Serie A after going 4 points clear of Napoli with last weekend’s 2-0 victory of Cesena. Milan has won 3 of their last 6 league games, also drawing 2 and losing against Roma.

The mounting injury list for Milan must be causing considerable concern for Allegri. He has now lost Alessandro Nesta for 3 to 4 weeks with an arm injury. Also absent for the next 3 weeks are Gennaro Gattuso and Clarence Seedorf. This is on top of, Kevin Prince Boateng, Gianluca Zambrotta, Daniele Bonera & Andrea Pirlo. Such was the extent of the decimation of the Milan squad; Thiago Silva was forced to play in central midfield against Parma and Sampdoria. The burden has been lifted somewhat in the past week by the acquisitions of Urby Emanuelsen and Mark van Bommel who have arrived from Ajax and Bayern Munich respectively. Both made their debuts in the midweek Coppa Italia win over Sampdoria.

Milan’s away form this season has been excellent. They currently have the best away points total of any side in Serie A. Their record broken downis as follows;

Played: 10

Won: 6 (Parma, Napoli, Bari, Inter, Bologna, Cagliari)

Drawn: 3 (Lazio, Sampdoria, Lecce)

Lost: 1 (Cesena)

Milan’s defensive record away from home is good, with them only conceding 8 goals in 10 games. Their scoring rate however is reduced to 1.4 goals per game, compared with their rate of just over 2 goals per game at home. This currently puts them as the 3^rd highest scorers away from home (Napoli & Udinese have scored more, but played a game more). They also have the 2^nd best defensive record, with only Genoa conceding fewer.

Injuries permitting, Allegri is likely to line up using his now familiar 4-3-1-2 formation. With Nesta missing through injury, it will probably mean the return to central defence of Thiago Silva. The combination of Yepes and Sokratis doesn’t really inspire a great deal of confidence, especially when the midfield is weakened. Milan has numerous threats going forward with the likes of Zlatan, Robinho,Cassano & Pato. The front 3 of Zlatan, Robinho and Cassano combined well vs. Cesena, and should have produced more goals. Robinho in particular was wasteful in front of goal, despite his e

xcellent approach play. Pato created a selection headache in midweek with 2 very well taken goals against Sampdoria. With Robinho and Zlatan pretty much assured a starting role, it seems a straight selection between Pato and Cassano.

Despite the talent of the attacking players, I can’t help but feel that against better sides (or sides who play out and out wingers, i.e. Spurs) that problems will be created by their lack of willingness to track back, thus isolating their full backs. However, I wouldn’t envisage this being too much of a problem in this fixture.

Prediction = Milan win.

I think this will be quite a close game. The crowd and the Catania players are likely to be well up for this game, with it being Simeone’s first at home. However, I think the attacking trident of Milan will be very difficult for them to contain. The signings of van Bommel and Emanuelsen, and their subsequent solid performances away at Sampdoria have swayed me more towards Milan in this fixture. It will allow Allegri to switch Silva back to centre half if he wishes to, and makes them a lot more solid defensively and in the middle of the park. Pushed on a score, I’ll go for 2-1 in favour of Milan.

Betfair odds at time of writing;

Milan win - 1.88

Milan to win 2-1 - 9.

An Important 5 Months For 'Kiko' Macheda

Seldom has a player had such an important impact on their first team debut than Federico ‘Kiko’ Macheda. The run-in for the Premier League title was fully underway. The two previous weeks Manchester United had been beaten. First up was a 4-1 drubbing against arch rivals Liverpool. This was followed up by an equally lacklustre defeat away to Fulham. Their hated rivals Liverpool were now hot on their heels, looking to end a wait of 19 years without a league title. It was Sunday 5^th April 2009, and Manchester United was trailing again, this time at home to Aston Villa. Injuries meant that there was no Wayne Rooney or Dimitar Berbatov to call upon. Alex Ferguson had to take a gamble. In the 61^st minute, Ferguson’s gamble was to replace his £17m signing Nani with an untested 17 year old. The gamble as we all know paid off. With a little help from Ronaldo, United ran out 3-2 winners with Macheda scoring a memorable injury time winner. A goal which swung the title pendulum firmly in United’s favour. A week later, Macheda rose from the bench again and scored the winning goal against Sunderland.

Since his heroics at the end of the 2008/9 season, his progress has been somewhat stunted. Much of the 2009/10 season was a write off for Macheda due to injury. The main highlights of the season for him were his Champions League debut against CSKA Moscow and coming off the bench against Chelsea, to score what proved to be a consolation goal in the defining game of the season. The 2010/11 season has seen Macheda involved in the first team on a more regular basis, with 5 starts and 7 appearances as a substitute. With the return of Michael Owen, Ferguson deemed that the best route for Macheda to get some experience would be to go out on loan, with Sampdoria being the chosen club.

I can’t help but feel that Macheda is now approaching a crossroads in his career. Although he is still only 19 years of age, he now needs to begin to deliver on the early promise that he has shown. It is perhaps a little strange that an Italian club has been chosen to prepare a player for a future in English football. It draws obvious parallels with the pr evious Italian youngster who was brought into the Manchester United academy, Giuseppe Rossi. Rossi was brought into the Manchester United academy at the age of 16, and much like Macheda, he was a stand out player, scoring countless goals at b oth youth and reserve level. At the age of 19, Rossi was sent out on loan to his boyhood club Parma, whom he helped avoid relegation with 9 goals in 19 games. The success of this loan spell indicated that Rossi was more than capable of cutting it at the highest level. He was then swiftly sold for a fee in the region of £6.6m. The competition at Manchester United was deemed too much with Carlos Tevez joining Wayne Rooney and Louis Saha to form a potent and established attacking trio. The same problem is going to be faced by Macheda on his return to Manchester. The current striking options are; Wayne Rooney (last season’s English player of the year), Dimitar Berbatov (the leading goalscorer in the league this season) and Javier Hernandez (Mexican international). Michael Owen will probably be released on a free transfer, but there is also Daniel Welbeck who is returning to the cl ub. It is hard to see where Macheda fits in, at least on a regular basis.

Macheda’s main strength is quite obvious, he is an excellent finisher. If the ball falls to him inside the box, then he is more than likely going to find the net.

However, his all-round game is in need of some improvement. Currently, he is a more effective player coming off the bench, than he is starting games. All 4 of his goals for Manchester United were scored when he came on as substitute. The problem he has at Manchester United is that they have a more effective player doing this role in Javier H

ernandez. When Macheda has started games, they have often passed him by. He is unable to play the lone striker role that Ferguson has tried him in a few times. He neither has the pace to play the role, nor the ability to hold the ball up. The ability to hold the ball will probably come with time, the pace won’t. Therefore, it is imperative that he is played with a partner. In this sense, the move to Sampdoria makes sense with Di Carlo’s favoured formation being a 4-4-2. The chances will need to be created though. Whilst Macheda is an

excellent finisher, he isn’t going to go on a mazy run and score any wonder goals. Most of his work is done inside the area. The areas of his game that I feel he needs to be working on are his upper body strength (natural for someone of his age), his first touch and his heading ability. His decision making is generally quite good, but his passing does let him down at times.

It will be an interesting and important 5 months for Macheda. He needs to look at the impact that Daniel Welbeck has had during his spell out on loan. Macheda and Welbeck formed a deadly partnership at both youth and reserve levels. Whilst Welbeck has always looked the better all-round player, Macheda stole the limelight with his heroics at the end of the 2008/9 season. There is no question that Welbeck has now pushed on to another level, whilst Macheda has been left kicking his heels. In part that is probably to be expected. Welbeck is half a year older than Macheda and is a more versatile player, which gives him more opportunity to play games. Macheda is much more one dimensional. As much as they are team mates, in a sense they are also rivals. Welbeck will probably be 4^th choice striker upon his return to Old Trafford, which will leave Macheda 5^th and lacking in games. It may be that Macheda also spends next season out on loan. But for however long his loan lasts, he needs to make this time count and it needs to be a success. In the case of Giuseppe Rossi, even that wasn’t enough.